ColoradoBuffaloes

1-2 T3rd (0-1) in B12

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

7.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/29	vsGeorgia TechGT	L20-27
2	9/06	vsDelawareDEL	W31-7
3	9/12	@HoustonHOU	L20-36
4	9/20	vsWyomingWYO	Win prob:87%
5	9/27	vsBYUBYU	Win prob:57%
6	10/04	@TCUTCU	Win prob:35%
7	10/11	vsIowa StateISU	Win prob:63%
9	10/25	@UtahUTAH	Win prob:45%
10	11/01	vsArizonaARIZ	Win prob:82%
11	11/08	@West VirginiaWVU	Win prob:69%
13	11/22	vsArizona StateASU	Win prob:54%
14	11/29	@Kansas StateKSU	Win prob:42%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-1	0.7%	100.0%
7-2	5.2%	83.7%
6-3	16.2%	15.6%
5-4	27.4%	0.0%
4-5	27.0%	0%
3-6	16.3%	0%
2-7	6.0%	0%
1-8	1.1%	0%
0-9	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

28.1%

24.4%

16.8%

16.2%

14.4%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
North CarolinaUNC@UCFUCF	7.7% (+0.1%)	7.6% (-0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@KansasKU	8.5% (+0.9%)	7.3% (-0.3%)
TulsaTLSA@Oklahoma StateOKST	7.8% (+0.2%)	7.5% (-0.1%)
SMUSMU@TCUTCU	7.5% (-0.1%)	7.7% (+0.1%)
Texas TechTTU@UtahUTAH	7.1% (-0.5%)	8.0% (+0.4%)
BYUBYU@East CarolinaECU	7.6% (+0.0%)	7.5% (-0.1%)
Arizona StateASU@BaylorBAY	7.7% (+0.1%)	7.5% (-0.1%)
WyomingWYO@ColoradoCOLO	7.6% (+0.0%)	7.6% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

North Carolina

West Virginia

Tulsa

Texas Tech

East Carolina

Arizona State

Wyoming

CCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

West Virginia

CCG: 8.5% • Scenario: 24.1%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.6%

Any 1 loss

83.9%

4.6%

100.0%

<0.1%

89.2%

0.1%

89.0%

0.3%

86.0%

0.3%

85.8%

0.7%

83.0%

0.9%

82.7%

1.2%

80.3%

0.4%

80.1%

0.5%

Any 2 losses

18.9%

14.8%

93.3%

<0.1%

88.9%

<0.1%

88.2%

0.1%

87.7%

<0.1%

84.3%

<0.1%

84.0%

0.1%

81.4%

<0.1%

79.1%

0.2%

32.8%

<0.1%

25.1%

0.2%

24.1%

0.4%

22.9%

<0.1%

22.6%

0.5%

22.4%

0.2%

21.7%

0.2%

21.3%

0.1%

19.9%

0.4%

19.4%

0.2%

17.0%

0.3%

16.5%

0.7%

16.3%

0.3%

16.3%

0.6%

16.1%

0.4%

15.4%

0.7%

15.3%

0.7%

15.3%

1.0%

14.4%

1.5%

14.3%

0.5%

14.2%

0.9%

14.0%

0.4%

13.7%

0.6%

13.5%

0.3%

13.3%

<0.1%

13.3%

1.6%

13.2%

0.4%

11.0%

0.9%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com