Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
63.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W38-31 | |
| 1 | 8/29 | W38-21 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W30-23 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:71% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:75% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:81% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:47% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:89% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:78% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:84% | |
| 13 | 11/21 | Win prob:93% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:87% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 13.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 33.9% | 95.6% |
| 6-2 | 32.1% | 54.0% |
| 5-3 | 15.5% | 4.1% |
| 4-4 | 4.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 63.9% (+0.3%) | 63.1% (-0.5%) | |
| 63.6% (+0.1%) | 63.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 63.5% (-0.1%) | 63.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 62.7% (-0.9%) | 63.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 63.7% (+0.2%) | 63.2% (-0.4%) | |
| 61.9% (-1.7%) | 70.0% (+6.4%) | |
| 62.1% (-1.5%) | 66.3% (+2.7%) | |
| 64.0% (+0.4%) | 63.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 62.7% (-0.9%) | 63.7% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UTSA
San Diego State
Idaho
Hawai'i
Wyoming
McNeeseCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Hawai'iCCG: 70.0% • Scenario: 21.0%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
9.3%Any 1 loss
96.3%
27.8%
100.0%
3.9%
98.3%
2.3%
98.2%
2.6%
98.0%
1.4%
97.8%
1.1%97.5%
0.8%
97.3%
1.8%97.2%
3.3%
93.1%
10.7%Any 2 losses
66.9%
32.7%99.1%
0.3%98.7%
0.5%98.6%
0.4%98.0%
1.2%98.0%
1.3%97.7%
1.0%97.0%
0.7%92.1%
4.5%78.8%
<0.1%76.7%
0.3%74.9%
0.2%73.8%
0.2%73.6%
0.2%73.5%
0.5%72.3%
0.4%71.6%
0.3%70.3%
0.1%68.6%
0.4%68.1%
0.3%67.1%
0.2%66.5%
0.7%61.5%
0.9%61.0%
0.2%60.8%
0.4%60.1%
0.1%59.8%
0.3%59.5%
0.5%59.3%
0.8%54.9%
1.7%54.9%
0.8%54.2%
0.6%52.3%
1.3%50.6%
3.2%48.3%
2.7%47.3%
3.5%40.8%
1.9%Any 3 losses
26.8%
20.3%76.7%
0.1%75.3%
<0.1%75.3%
0.1%74.4%
<0.1%73.6%
0.1%73.6%
0.1%71.2%
0.2%70.2%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%68.6%
0.3%65.7%
<0.1%65.4%
0.1%64.5%
0.1%63.5%
0.4%63.0%
0.2%61.7%
0.2%60.5%
<0.1%58.9%
0.3%55.2%
0.7%53.4%
0.3%51.5%
0.2%51.3%
<0.1%50.9%
0.3%50.6%
1.1%50.3%
0.5%46.6%
1.3%45.1%
1.5%38.7%
0.9%20.7%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.2%
0.2%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
0.5%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
0.1%6.1%
0.2%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
0.2%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.5%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
0.3%4.9%
0.4%4.9%
0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
1.0%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
0.3%3.5%
0.3%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
0.8%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
0.4%3.0%
0.2%3.0%
0.9%2.6%
0.3%2.4%
0.3%2.3%
0.6%2.3%
0.7%2.1%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.5%1.5%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
3.9%
4.4%18.8%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.4%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.4%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
0.3%3.5%
0.4%3.5%
<0.1%3.1%
0.3%2.9%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
0.2%2.3%
0.2%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.7%
0.2%1.5%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14