Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-15 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W35-3 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:79% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:50% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:71% | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:74% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:51% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:64% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:22% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:81% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:38% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 5.1% | 89.5% |
| 6-2 | 17.0% | 26.9% |
| 5-3 | 28.5% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 27.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 15.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 9.0% (-0.8%) | 10.6% (+0.8%) | |
| 10.0% (+0.2%) | 9.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.8% (-0.0%) | 9.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 9.7% (-0.1%) | 9.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 9.4% (-0.4%) | 9.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.3% (+0.5%) | 9.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.0%) | 9.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.0%) | 9.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.6% (-0.2%) | 9.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 9.6% (-0.3%) | 9.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.0%) | 9.8% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.5%Any 1 loss
90.0%
4.1%
100.0%
0.1%
94.7%
0.4%
93.5%
0.1%
93.3%
0.3%
92.9%
0.4%
91.4%
0.1%
91.3%
0.2%
87.6%
1.6%
87.0%
0.8%Any 2 losses
32.0%
14.5%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%92.6%
0.1%92.0%
0.1%88.6%
0.4%88.6%
<0.1%78.5%
0.2%58.1%
<0.1%56.7%
0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.1%
0.1%52.3%
<0.1%50.0%
0.2%47.2%
0.2%47.1%
<0.1%46.9%
0.2%45.2%
0.1%45.1%
0.2%44.6%
0.3%41.8%
<0.1%39.9%
0.4%38.5%
0.2%31.4%
0.2%31.1%
0.4%30.0%
0.4%29.2%
1.0%28.9%
0.5%27.3%
0.8%27.0%
0.7%26.5%
0.3%24.6%
1.6%24.0%
1.6%23.9%
0.3%23.8%
0.8%13.1%
2.6%Any 3 losses
17.2%
5.6%63.6%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.3%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.6%
<0.1%38.0%
0.1%35.1%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%32.2%
0.1%28.3%
0.2%28.2%
<0.1%27.5%
0.1%26.3%
0.5%25.3%
<0.1%21.7%
0.4%21.6%
0.2%21.1%
0.2%18.1%
0.2%13.5%
0.8%6.3%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.7%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.4%Any 4 losses
1.5%
0.8%9.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14