Western KentuckyHilltoppers

2-1 T1st (1-0) in CUSA

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

14.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/23	vsSam HoustonSHSU	W41-24
1	8/30	vsNorth AlabamaUNA	W55-6
2	9/06	@ToledoTOL	L21-45
4	9/20	vsNevadaNEV	Win prob:76%
5	9/27	@Missouri StateMOST	Win prob:48%
6	10/03	@DelawareDEL	Win prob:34%
7	10/14	vsFlorida InternationalFIU	Win prob:62%
8	10/21	@Louisiana TechLT	Win prob:42%
10	11/01	vsNew Mexico StateNMSU	Win prob:76%
12	11/15	vsMiddle TennesseeMTSU	Win prob:82%
13	11/22	@LSULSU	Win prob:9%
14	11/29	@Jacksonville StateJXST	Win prob:15%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0.4%	100.0%
7-1	4.5%	96.2%
6-2	17.0%	51.8%
5-3	30.9%	4.3%
4-4	29.3%	0%
3-5	14.3%	0%
2-6	3.3%	0%
1-7	0.3%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

80.3%

6.4%

5.5%

4.7%

3.0%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Southern MissUSM@Louisiana TechLT	15.0% (+0.2%)	14.8% (-0.0%)
James MadisonJMU@LibertyLIB	14.9% (+0.1%)	14.8% (-0.1%)
NevadaNEV@Western KentuckyWKU	14.7% (-0.2%)	14.9% (+0.1%)
UL MonroeULM@UTEPUTEP	15.1% (+0.2%)	14.8% (-0.1%)
MarshallMRSH@Middle TennesseeMTSU	14.9% (+0.0%)	14.7% (-0.2%)
Arkansas StateARST@Kennesaw StateKENN	14.9% (+0.0%)	14.8% (-0.0%)
DelawareDEL@Florida InternationalFIU	14.1% (-0.8%)	15.8% (+1.0%)
Murray StateMUR@Jacksonville StateJXST	14.4% (-0.5%)	14.9% (+0.1%)
UT MartinUTM@Missouri StateMOST	15.4% (+0.5%)	14.8% (-0.1%)
Sam HoustonSHSU@TexasTEX	15.2% (+0.4%)	14.9% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Southern Miss

Western Kentucky

UL Monroe

Murray State

Sam Houston

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Florida International

CCG: 15.8% • Scenario: 44.0%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

97.5%

0.6%

100.0%

0.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

93.5%

<0.1%

92.4%

0.2%

Any 2 losses

84.9%

4.4%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

98.5%

0.3%

98.4%

<0.1%

98.4%

0.4%

98.1%

0.5%

97.1%

0.2%

95.6%

<0.1%

94.5%

1.6%

90.9%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

79.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

72.7%

<0.1%

68.8%

<0.1%

64.5%

<0.1%

63.2%

<0.1%

61.1%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

58.0%

<0.1%

51.5%

<0.1%

50.0%

0.3%

48.0%

0.1%

47.2%

<0.1%

41.6%

<0.1%

40.4%

0.2%

38.5%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

48.7%

15.0%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

98.4%

<0.1%

97.6%

<0.1%

96.2%

0.2%

96.1%

0.1%

95.5%

0.5%

85.7%

<0.1%

85.3%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

74.0%

<0.1%

71.8%

0.1%

70.2%

0.1%

70.0%

<0.1%

69.0%

0.4%

68.0%

0.5%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

64.3%

<0.1%

63.6%

0.2%

63.5%

<0.1%

63.3%

0.1%

61.8%

<0.1%

59.5%

0.3%

58.3%

<0.1%

57.4%

1.0%

57.1%

0.2%

57.1%

0.2%

56.9%

0.5%

53.8%

0.7%

52.3%

<0.1%

51.5%

0.4%

51.4%

<0.1%

50.4%

1.6%

50.0%

<0.1%

48.9%

<0.1%

45.9%

3.1%

43.8%

2.3%

43.5%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

36.4%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

13.0%

<0.1%

8.9%

<0.1%

8.8%

<0.1%

8.7%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

7.3%

<0.1%

7.3%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

5.9%

<0.1%

5.2%

0.2%

4.7%

<0.1%

4.2%

0.1%

4.0%

<0.1%

3.7%

0.3%

3.6%

0.4%

2.8%

0.2%

2.7%

<0.1%

2.5%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com