Hawaii

Hawai'iRainbow Warriors

3-1 T2nd (0-0) in MWC

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

HawaiiSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
08/23
vsStanfordSTAN
W23-20
18/30
@ArizonaARIZ
L6-40
29/06
vsSam Houston StSHSU
W37-20
39/13
vsPortland StatePRST
W23-3
49/20
vsFresno StFRES
Win prob:21%
59/27
@Air ForceAF
Win prob:19%
710/11
vsUtah StUSU
Win prob:36%
810/18
@Colorado StCSU
Win prob:27%
1011/01
@San Jose StSJSU
Win prob:20%
1111/08
vsSan Diego StSDSU
Win prob:51%
1311/21
@UNLVUNLV
Win prob:7%
1411/29
vsWyomingWYO
Win prob:37%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

HawaiiRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0%
100.0%
7-1
0.0%
100.0%
6-2
0.4%
64.3%
5-3
2.7%
7.5%
4-4
10.4%
0%
3-5
23.9%
0%
2-6
32.3%
0%
1-7
23.4%
0%
0-8
6.9%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Hawaii CCG Opponents

if Hawaii makes the CCG

UNLVUNLV
51.1%
Boise StateBoise St
23.4%
Fresno StateFresno St
17.0%
Air ForceAir Force
4.3%
Utah StateUtah St
4.3%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

HawaiiThis Week's Impact

Game
HawaiiCCG OddsAway
HawaiiCCG OddsHome
UT San AntonioUTSA@Colorado StCSU
0.5%
(+0.0%)		0.5%
(-0.0%)
CaliforniaCAL@San Diego StSDSU
0.5%
(-0.0%)		0.5%
(+0.0%)
NevadaNEV@WKUWKU
0.5%
(-0.0%)		0.5%
(+0.0%)
IdahoIDHO@San Jose StSJSU
0.7%
(+0.2%)		0.5%
(-0.0%)
UNLVUNLV@Miami OHM-OH
0.5%
(-0.0%)		0.5%
(+0.0%)
Fresno StFRES@HawaiiHAW
0.2%
(-0.3%)		1.7%
(+1.2%)
Boise StBOIS@Air ForceAF
0.4%
(-0.1%)		0.7%
(+0.2%)
WyomingWYO@ColoradoCOLO
0.4%
(-0.1%)		0.5%
(+0.0%)
McNeeseMCN@Utah StUSU
0.5%
(+0.0%)		0.5%
(+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for Hawaii

San Diego StSan Diego StateNevadaNevadaIdahoIdahoMiami OHMiami (OH)HawaiiHawai'iWyomingWyoming

CCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Hawaii

HawaiiHawai'i

CCG: 1.7% • Scenario: 21.0%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

HawaiiLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Hawaii CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
63.3%
0.4%
Colorado StWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceSan Diego St
100.0%
<0.1%
Utah StWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StWyoming
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego St
100.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceColorado St
92.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceWyoming
83.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StUtah St
83.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno St
77.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceUtah St
77.8%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Jose St
77.8%
<0.1%
San Jose StUtah St
75.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StSan Jose St
75.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno St
73.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceUNLV
72.9%
<0.1%
San Jose StWyoming
71.4%
<0.1%
San Diego StUNLV
66.7%
<0.1%
San Jose StUNLV
64.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego St
60.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StUNLV
59.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Jose St
50.0%
<0.1%
UNLVWyoming
48.1%
<0.1%
Fresno StWyoming
44.4%
<0.1%
UNLVUtah St
42.9%
<0.1%
Fresno StUNLV
33.9%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
7.8%
2.6%
Air ForceSan Diego StUtah St
33.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StSan Diego St
25.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceSan Jose StUtah St
23.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StUtah St
20.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceSan Diego StUNLV
18.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceUtah StWyoming
18.2%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego StSan Jose St
18.2%
<0.1%
San Jose StUtah StWyoming
15.4%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Jose StUtah St
14.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceSan Jose StWyoming
13.5%
<0.1%
San Diego StUNLVUtah St
13.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StSan Jose St
12.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StSan Diego St
11.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceColorado StWyoming
11.5%
<0.1%
Colorado StUtah StWyoming
11.1%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StUtah St
10.5%
<0.1%
Colorado StUNLVWyoming
9.5%
<0.1%
San Diego StUNLVWyoming
9.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StUNLV
9.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StUNLV
9.1%
0.1%
San Jose StUNLVUtah St
8.9%
0.1%
Air ForceColorado StFresno St
8.3%
<0.1%
UNLVUtah StWyoming
8.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceColorado StSan Diego St
8.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Jose StUNLV
8.2%
0.2%
Colorado StUNLVUtah St
7.8%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Jose StUtah St
7.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceSan Diego StSan Jose St
7.1%
<0.1%
Fresno StUNLVWyoming
7.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceUNLVWyoming
6.9%
0.1%
Colorado StFresno StSan Jose St
6.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceColorado StSan Jose St
6.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceColorado StUNLV
6.7%
0.2%
Air ForceFresno StSan Jose St
6.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceSan Jose StUNLV
6.5%
0.2%
San Jose StUNLVWyoming
6.3%
0.1%
Air ForceFresno StWyoming
6.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StUtah StWyoming
6.3%
<0.1%
San Diego StSan Jose StUNLV
5.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceColorado StUtah St
5.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceFresno StUNLV
5.5%
0.2%
Air ForceUNLVUtah St
5.4%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Jose StUNLV
4.4%
0.2%
Fresno StSan Jose StWyoming
4.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Jose StWyoming
3.9%
<0.1%
Fresno StUNLVUtah St
3.5%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego StUNLV
2.9%
<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

HawaiiCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com