Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W10-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W31-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L6-31 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:13% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:25% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:52% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:35% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:62% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:57% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:25% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:75% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:63% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 2.1% | 92.9% |
| 6-2 | 9.5% | 42.5% |
| 5-3 | 21.8% | 2.2% |
| 4-4 | 29.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 23.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 10.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.6% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 6.5% (-0.1%) | 6.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 6.6% (-0.0%) | 6.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 6.6% (-0.1%) | 6.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.6% (-0.0%) | 6.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.7% (+0.1%) | 6.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 6.3% (-0.4%) | 8.0% (+1.3%) | |
| 5.8% (-0.8%) | 8.1% (+1.4%) | |
| 6.4% (-0.2%) | 6.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.2% (-0.5%) | 6.7% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 8.1% • Scenario: 35.7%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
98.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
73.6%
2.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.4%
0.2%96.1%
0.1%95.5%
0.3%91.8%
0.5%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%85.5%
0.5%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%50.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.8%
<0.1%48.2%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%39.2%
0.1%38.7%
0.1%37.7%
<0.1%37.2%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%23.9%
0.2%Any 3 losses
34.9%
10.2%82.8%
<0.1%81.1%
<0.1%73.2%
<0.1%72.3%
<0.1%70.3%
<0.1%69.4%
<0.1%69.3%
0.1%69.0%
0.2%67.4%
0.2%63.6%
0.2%63.3%
<0.1%59.4%
0.1%58.3%
<0.1%54.0%
0.1%53.4%
0.3%48.3%
0.3%47.2%
0.2%45.7%
0.4%44.6%
0.3%43.6%
0.3%42.2%
0.9%41.9%
0.4%40.5%
0.5%39.5%
0.9%39.5%
0.1%37.8%
0.3%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.7%
0.5%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.3%
1.6%14.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.2%1.9%
0.1%1.4%
0.4%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14