NevadaWolf Pack

1-2 T2nd (0-0) in MWC

Data from 2025-09-14 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@Penn StatePSU	L11-46
2	9/06	vsSacramento StateSAC	W20-17
3	9/13	vsMiddle TennesseeMTSU	L13-14
4	9/20	@Western KentuckyWKU	Win prob:24%
6	10/04	@Fresno StateFRES	Win prob:13%
7	10/11	vsSan Diego StateSDSU	Win prob:53%
8	10/18	@New MexicoUNM	Win prob:33%
9	10/24	vsBoise StateBOIS	Win prob:16%
11	11/08	@Utah StateUSU	Win prob:24%
12	11/15	vsSan José StateSJSU	Win prob:33%
13	11/22	@WyomingWYO	Win prob:25%
14	11/29	vsUNLVUNLV	Win prob:13%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0%	100.0%
7-1	0.0%	100.0%
6-2	0.4%	74.3%
5-3	2.4%	11.3%
4-4	9.1%	0%
3-5	22.7%	0%
2-6	32.6%	0%
1-7	25.1%	0%
0-8	7.6%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

42.6%

31.5%

14.8%

5.6%

5.6%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
UTSAUTSA@Colorado StateCSU	0.6% (+0.0%)	0.5% (-0.0%)
CaliforniaCAL@San Diego StateSDSU	0.6% (+0.0%)	0.5% (-0.1%)
NevadaNEV@Western KentuckyWKU	0.6% (+0.0%)	0.6% (+0.0%)
IdahoIDHO@San José StateSJSU	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.6% (+0.0%)
UNLVUNLV@Miami (OH)M-OH	0.6% (+0.0%)	0.5% (-0.1%)
Fresno StateFRES@Hawai'iHAW	0.6% (+0.0%)	0.6% (+0.0%)
Boise StateBOIS@Air ForceAF	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.6% (+0.1%)
WyomingWYO@ColoradoCOLO	0.6% (-0.0%)	0.6% (+0.0%)
McNeeseMCN@Utah StateUSU	0.6% (+0.0%)	0.6% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

UTSA

San Diego State

Western Kentucky

Idaho

UNLV

Hawai'i

Boise State

Wyoming

Utah State

CCG: 16.7% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

California

UNLV

CCG: 0.6% • Scenario: 55.5%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Any 1 loss

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

71.2%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

88.9%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

63.6%

<0.1%

54.5%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-14 • SportsSimulate.com