Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W52-42 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L24-38 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-56 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:19% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:53% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:15% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:25% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:49% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:22% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:33% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 98.2% |
| 6-2 | 0.7% | 31.4% |
| 5-3 | 5.1% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 17.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 31.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 29.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 13.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 2.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Memphis
East Carolina
South Alabama
Tulsa
RiceCCG: 1.4% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Memphis
ArmyRiceCCG: 0.6% • Scenario: 6.2%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
46.6%
0.2%
97.9%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%
60.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%
27.8%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%
9.1%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
31.7%
0.5%42.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.7%
0.1%37.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%26.3%
0.2%24.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21