Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-26 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W72-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L41-44 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W56-24 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:85% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:74% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:25% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:76% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:67% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:98% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:64% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 3.9% | 75.3% |
| 6-2 | 20.5% | 8.6% |
| 5-3 | 33.7% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 26.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 11.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 3.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7% (+0.0%) | 4.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.7% (-0.0%) | 4.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.5% (-0.2%) | 4.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.5% (-0.2%) | 4.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.9% (+0.2%) | 4.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 5.6% (+0.9%) | 4.4% (-0.3%) | |
| 4.8% (+0.1%) | 4.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 5.4% (+0.8%) | 0.4% (-4.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Vanderbilt
Arkansas
Alabama
Massachusetts
Kentucky
AuburnCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TennesseeCCG: 5.4% • Scenario: 85.1%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
75.4%
3.8%Any 1 loss
8.9%
20.2%
72.4%
<0.1%14.3%
1.2%12.3%
1.2%
10.6%
2.1%
10.2%
0.7%9.9%
1.4%7.5%
11.8%
6.1%
1.9%Any 2 losses
7.6%
0.3%15.0%
<0.1%8.6%
0.2%5.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21