VirginiaCavaliers

3-1 T5th (1-1) in ACC

Data from 2025-09-21 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

4.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsCoastal CarolinaCCU	W48-7
2	9/06	@NC StateNCSU	L31-35
3	9/13	vsWilliam & MaryW&M	W55-16
4	9/20	vsStanfordSTAN	W48-20
5	9/26	vsFlorida StateFSU	Win prob:66%
6	10/04	@LouisvilleLOU	Win prob:18%
8	10/18	vsWashington StateWSU	Win prob:75%
9	10/25	@North CarolinaUNC	Win prob:53%
10	11/01	@CaliforniaCAL	Win prob:33%
11	11/08	vsWake ForestWAKE	Win prob:74%
12	11/15	@DukeDUKE	Win prob:50%
14	11/29	vsVirginia TechVT	Win prob:66%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-1	0.5%	99.4%
7-2	4.8%	67.0%
6-3	17.6%	4.0%
5-4	30.5%	0%
4-5	28.2%	0%
3-6	14.4%	0%
2-7	3.6%	0%
1-8	0.4%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

61.2%

14.8%

11.1%

7.9%

4.9%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
DukeDUKE@SyracuseSYR	4.4% (-0.0%)	4.5% (+0.0%)
LouisvilleLOU@PittsburghPITT	4.3% (-0.1%)	4.7% (+0.3%)
Georgia TechGT@Wake ForestWAKE	4.0% (-0.4%)	5.3% (+0.9%)
Florida StateFSU@VirginiaUVA	0.9% (-3.6%)	6.2% (+1.8%)
CaliforniaCAL@Boston CollegeBC	4.2% (-0.3%)	4.8% (+0.4%)
San José StateSJSU@StanfordSTAN	4.5% (+0.1%)	4.3% (-0.1%)
Virginia TechVT@NC StateNCSU	5.0% (+0.6%)	4.1% (-0.3%)

Best Winner Combination for

Syracuse

Pittsburgh

Wake Forest

Virginia

Boston College

San José State

Virginia Tech

CCG: 13.8% • Scenario: 0.3%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Virginia

CCG: 6.2% • Scenario: 66.4%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

99.7%

0.4%

Any 1 loss

68.7%

3.7%

98.5%

0.1%

74.6%

0.1%

74.4%

0.2%

73.2%

0.4%

70.5%

0.3%

69.3%

0.2%

65.8%

0.7%

64.9%

1.7%

Any 2 losses

9.5%

14.4%

74.2%

<0.1%

72.2%

<0.1%

71.8%

0.1%

70.3%

<0.1%

66.9%

0.1%

65.1%

0.6%

59.7%

0.3%

13.2%

<0.1%

10.5%

<0.1%

8.7%

0.1%

8.2%

<0.1%

7.4%

0.3%

7.2%

0.4%

5.7%

0.2%

5.2%

0.1%

5.2%

0.4%

4.7%

0.2%

4.6%

0.7%

4.5%

0.6%

4.4%

0.8%

4.3%

0.3%

4.2%

0.9%

4.2%

0.2%

4.2%

0.1%

4.2%

1.8%

3.4%

1.6%

3.2%

0.8%

2.7%

3.5%

Any 3 losses

3.9%

4.3%

13.6%

<0.1%

10.3%

<0.1%

8.5%

<0.1%

8.1%

<0.1%

8.1%

<0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

6.1%

0.2%

5.9%

<0.1%

5.3%

0.1%

5.0%

<0.1%

3.7%

0.3%

3.7%

<0.1%

3.6%

0.5%

3.5%

0.6%

3.5%

0.1%

3.3%

0.2%

3.1%

0.3%

2.9%

1.2%

2.6%

0.2%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com