Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
29.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L45-48 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-35 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:84% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:94% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:45% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:83% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:42% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:74% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:60% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 14.8% | 95.6% |
| 6-2 | 29.3% | 40.4% |
| 5-3 | 29.6% | 0.8% |
| 4-4 | 16.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 28.7% (-0.5%) | 29.6% (+0.4%) | |
| 29.0% (-0.2%) | 29.7% (+0.5%) | |
| 27.7% (-1.5%) | 32.2% (+3.0%) | |
| 29.2% (+0.0%) | 29.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 28.6% (-0.6%) | 30.0% (+0.8%) | |
| 29.2% (-0.1%) | 29.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 30.1% (+0.9%) | 28.8% (-0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Duke
Pittsburgh
Wake Forest
Florida State
California
Stanford
Virginia TechCCG: 41.6% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Wake ForestCCG: 32.2% • Scenario: 33.3%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.0%Any 1 loss
95.6%
14.8%98.5%
0.2%
97.7%
1.0%97.6%
2.0%
96.2%
3.7%95.7%
0.7%
95.4%
2.4%
93.9%
4.2%
93.6%
0.6%Any 2 losses
40.4%
29.4%74.4%
<0.1%63.3%
0.2%63.2%
<0.1%61.5%
0.2%60.3%
0.8%57.6%
0.4%55.9%
1.3%54.3%
0.1%53.8%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%49.3%
2.5%48.9%
0.9%48.4%
0.7%48.0%
0.2%47.8%
0.2%47.1%
0.5%45.4%
1.5%44.8%
0.1%43.8%
0.7%43.3%
0.9%40.8%
0.4%37.4%
5.3%36.7%
3.0%35.6%
2.8%33.9%
0.5%32.8%
1.6%30.7%
0.7%25.4%
3.5%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21