Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
13.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-15 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W35-3 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L0-34 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:59% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:74% | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:76% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:61% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:68% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:24% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:79% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:40% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.1% | 99.9% |
| 7-1 | 7.8% | 88.8% |
| 6-2 | 21.2% | 26.1% |
| 5-3 | 30.1% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 24.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 11.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 3.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 14.0% (+0.5%) | 13.2% (-0.3%) | |
| 13.3% (-0.3%) | 14.3% (+0.7%) | |
| 13.1% (-0.5%) | 14.5% (+0.9%) | |
| 13.5% (-0.1%) | 13.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.4% (+5.8%) | 5.4% (-8.2%) | |
| 13.5% (-0.0%) | 13.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 14.6% (+1.1%) | 13.0% (-0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Duke
Pittsburgh
Wake Forest
VirginiaCalifornia
Stanford
Virginia TechCCG: 26.4% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
CaliforniaCCG: 19.4% • Scenario: 58.4%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.9%
1.1%Any 1 loss
88.8%
7.8%96.5%
0.5%95.9%
0.3%
95.1%
0.3%
92.5%
0.7%92.4%
0.4%89.4%
0.7%
87.1%
3.2%
84.8%
1.7%Any 2 losses
26.1%
21.2%54.6%
<0.1%48.9%
0.1%48.2%
0.1%47.0%
0.3%45.7%
0.2%45.3%
0.2%44.8%
0.4%44.1%
0.2%43.8%
0.2%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
0.1%41.4%
0.2%41.3%
0.5%40.8%
0.3%38.5%
0.2%31.1%
0.9%29.8%
1.0%29.8%
1.6%29.2%
0.4%28.1%
2.3%25.6%
0.7%24.7%
1.1%24.5%
0.5%23.9%
2.0%23.8%
1.1%22.5%
1.1%22.4%
0.6%13.6%
4.8%Any 3 losses
0.8%
2.4%6.7%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.4%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.6%0.7%
0.1%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
0.6%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21