Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-21

Atlantic Coast ConferenceConference Standings

T1Georgia TechGT1-04-022.7%
T1SyracuseSYR1-03-14.2%
T1DukeDUKE1-02-23.8%
4NC StateNCSU2-13-19.3%
T5VirginiaUVA1-13-14.4%
T5StanfordSTAN1-11-3<0.1%
T7Miami FLMIA0-04-070.7%
T7LouisvilleLOU0-03-029.4%
T7SMUSMU0-02-229.2%
T7CaliforniaCAL0-03-113.6%
T7PittsburghPITT0-02-14.0%
T7ClemsonCLEM0-21-33.7%
T7North CarolinaUNC0-02-21.7%
T7Florida StFSU0-03-01.5%
T7Virginia TechVT0-01-31.2%
T7Boston CollegeBC0-11-20.3%
T7Wake ForestWAKE0-12-10.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Matchups

116.2%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
MIAMiami FL
216.0%
Miami FLMIA
vs
SMUSMU
312.9%
Georgia TechGT
vs
MIAMiami FL
47.6%
CaliforniaCAL
vs
MIAMiami FL
54.7%
Miami FLMIA
vs
NCSUNC State
64.1%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
SMUSMU
73.1%
Georgia TechGT
vs
SMUSMU
83.1%
Georgia TechGT
vs
LOULouisville
92.5%
Miami FLMIA
vs
UVAVirginia
102.2%
Miami FLMIA
vs
SYRSyracuse
112.1%
ClemsonCLEM
vs
MIAMiami FL
122.0%
Miami FLMIA
vs
PITTPittsburgh
132.0%
DukeDUKE
vs
MIAMiami FL
141.7%
CaliforniaCAL
vs
LOULouisville
151.5%
CaliforniaCAL
vs
SMUSMU

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 70.7%
Game
Miami FLCCG OddsAway
Miami FLCCG OddsHome
DukeDUKE@SyracuseSYR
69.9%
(-0.8%)		71.3%
(+0.5%)
LouisvilleLOU@PittsburghPITT
69.8%
(-0.9%)		73.2%
(+2.5%)
Georgia TechGT@Wake ForestWAKE
69.9%
(-0.8%)		72.4%
(+1.7%)
Florida StFSU@VirginiaUVA
72.0%
(+1.3%)		70.1%
(-0.6%)
CaliforniaCAL@Boston CollegeBC
70.0%
(-0.8%)		71.8%
(+1.1%)
San Jose StSJSU@StanfordSTAN
70.8%
(+0.1%)		70.6%
(-0.1%)
Virginia TechVT@NC StateNCSU
71.3%
(+0.6%)		70.4%
(-0.3%)

Best Winner Combination for Miami FL

DukeDukePittsburghPittsburghWake ForestWake ForestVirginiaVirginiaCaliforniaCaliforniaStanfordStanfordVirginia TechVirginia Tech

CCG: 83.2% • Scenario: 0.2%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Miami FL

PittsburghPittsburgh

CCG: 73.2% • Scenario: 27.5%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-08-17-17-26-26-35-3Overall
Miami FLMIA100%-97.5%-49.3%-1.6%70.7%
LouisvilleLOU100%-96.5%-45.1%-1.9%29.4%
SMUSMU100%-95.6%-40.4%-0.8%29.2%
Georgia TechGT99.8%-82.5%-26.6%-0.3%22.7%
CaliforniaCAL99.9%-88.8%-26.1%-0.2%13.6%
NC StateNCSU-100%-74.6%-6.1%-9.3%
VirginiaUVA-99.4%-67.0%-4.0%-4.4%
SyracuseSYR100%-95.1%-38.8%-1.4%4.2%
PittsburghPITT100%-94.4%-38.4%-0.7%4.0%
DukeDUKE100%-86.5%-28.1%-0.4%3.8%
ClemsonCLEM----43.7%-0.7%3.7%
North CarolinaUNC100%-81.2%-19.8%-0.1%1.7%
Florida StFSU100%-87.3%-25.5%-0.1%1.5%
Virginia TechVT100%-96.5%-50.3%-1.8%1.2%
Boston CollegeBC--100%-52.8%-1.0%0.3%
Wake ForestWAKE--85.7%-37.4%-0.4%0.2%
StanfordSTAN--100%-53.3%-0.9%<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-08-17-17-26-26-35-35-44-44-53-53-62-62-71-71-80-8Avg Wins
Miami FLMIA(0-0)19.6%0.0%37.9%0.0%28.5%0.0%11.2%0.0%2.5%0.0%0.3%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.6
SMUSMU(0-0)3.0%0.0%14.8%0.0%29.3%0.0%29.6%0.0%16.9%0.0%5.3%0.0%1.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%5.4
Georgia TechGT(1-0)3.2%0.0%14.5%0.0%27.9%0.0%28.9%0.0%17.8%0.0%6.3%0.0%1.3%0.0%0.1%--5.3
LouisvilleLOU(0-0)2.5%0.0%13.9%0.0%28.7%0.0%29.9%0.0%17.7%0.0%6.0%0.0%1.2%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%5.3
NC StateNCSU(2-1)-0.8%0.0%9.2%0.0%27.1%0.0%34.2%0.0%21.3%0.0%6.6%0.0%0.8%---5.1
CaliforniaCAL(0-0)1.1%0.0%7.8%0.0%21.2%0.0%30.1%0.0%24.4%0.0%11.6%0.0%3.2%0.0%0.5%0.0%<0.1%4.8
VirginiaUVA(1-1)-0.5%0.0%4.8%0.0%17.6%0.0%30.5%0.0%28.2%0.0%14.4%0.0%3.6%0.0%0.4%-4.6
ClemsonCLEM(0-2)----7.9%0.0%28.7%0.0%36.0%0.0%20.4%0.0%6.0%0.0%0.8%0.0%<0.1%4.1
DukeDUKE(1-0)0.1%0.0%1.6%0.0%8.2%0.0%21.6%0.0%31.2%0.0%25.1%0.0%10.5%0.0%1.7%--3.9
SyracuseSYR(1-0)<0.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%7.2%0.0%22.2%0.0%32.4%0.0%25.6%0.0%9.9%0.0%1.5%--3.9
PittsburghPITT(0-0)0.1%0.0%1.3%0.0%6.6%0.0%18.0%0.0%28.4%0.0%26.5%0.0%14.4%0.0%4.2%0.0%0.5%3.7
North CarolinaUNC(0-0)<0.1%0.0%0.8%0.0%4.8%0.0%14.9%0.0%26.9%0.0%28.2%0.0%17.8%0.0%5.7%0.0%0.8%3.4
Florida StFSU(0-0)<0.1%0.0%0.5%0.0%3.9%0.0%13.7%0.0%26.5%0.0%29.9%0.0%18.7%0.0%5.9%0.0%0.8%3.4
Virginia TechVT(0-0)<0.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%1.7%0.0%7.3%0.0%18.8%0.0%29.4%0.0%27.3%0.0%13.0%0.0%2.5%2.8
Boston CollegeBC(0-1)--<0.1%0.0%0.5%0.0%3.5%0.0%12.6%0.0%26.1%0.0%31.5%0.0%20.4%0.0%5.3%2.3
Wake ForestWAKE(0-1)--<0.1%0.0%0.4%0.0%3.0%0.0%11.3%0.0%24.7%0.0%32.1%0.0%22.1%0.0%6.3%2.2
StanfordSTAN(1-1)--0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%7.5%0.0%25.8%0.0%40.9%0.0%24.7%--2.2

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com