Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W61-9 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L24-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:28% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:63% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:50% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:47% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:56% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:71% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:3% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:35% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:18% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.3% | 94.4% |
| 6-2 | 6.6% | 38.4% |
| 5-3 | 18.0% | 0.7% |
| 4-4 | 28.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 26.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 14.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 4.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0% (-0.1%) | 4.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (-2.4%) | 10.4% (+6.4%) | |
| 3.9% (-0.1%) | 4.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 4.2% (+0.2%) | 3.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.7% (-0.3%) | 4.5% (+0.4%) | |
| 4.1% (+0.0%) | 4.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.0% (-0.0%) | 4.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
SyracusePittsburgh
Wake Forest
Florida State
Boston College
San José State
Virginia TechCCG: 15.4% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
PittsburghCCG: 10.4% • Scenario: 27.5%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
97.7%
0.2%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
94.1%
<0.1%
77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
86.0%
1.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.1%97.8%
<0.1%96.5%
0.2%93.5%
0.1%92.7%
0.3%92.3%
0.4%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
37.8%
6.4%76.5%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%62.8%
0.2%60.3%
<0.1%60.2%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.4%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.9%
0.1%50.5%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%47.3%
0.1%44.6%
0.2%43.9%
0.2%43.8%
0.4%43.5%
0.3%39.0%
0.4%39.0%
0.2%37.7%
0.1%37.5%
0.2%36.5%
0.5%35.6%
0.3%34.8%
0.5%33.6%
0.8%21.0%
1.1%1.3%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21