Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
29.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W51-17 | |
| 2 | 9/05 | W28-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W40-17 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:72% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:82% | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:29% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:86% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:78% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:76% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:63% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:44% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:79% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 13.9% | 96.5% |
| 6-2 | 28.7% | 45.1% |
| 5-3 | 29.9% | 1.9% |
| 4-4 | 17.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 6.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 29.7% (+0.3%) | 29.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 35.7% (+6.3%) | 12.8% (-16.6%) | |
| 28.4% (-1.0%) | 31.5% (+2.1%) | |
| 29.0% (-0.4%) | 29.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 28.7% (-0.7%) | 30.3% (+0.9%) | |
| 29.2% (-0.2%) | 29.7% (+0.3%) | |
| 31.1% (+1.7%) | 28.6% (-0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
DukeLouisville
Wake Forest
Florida State
California
San José State
Virginia TechCCG: 44.3% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LouisvilleCCG: 35.7% • Scenario: 72.5%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.0%Any 1 loss
96.7%
11.5%
100.0%
0.5%
99.2%
0.4%98.9%
0.6%
98.2%
1.2%
96.5%
2.4%
96.4%
0.3%
95.9%
4.8%
95.2%
0.7%95.0%
0.5%Any 2 losses
50.9%
25.4%99.2%
0.1%98.8%
0.2%98.7%
<0.1%97.5%
0.3%96.2%
0.6%95.9%
0.2%95.8%
1.3%94.4%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.1%
<0.1%66.2%
0.1%63.1%
0.1%63.1%
0.1%62.2%
0.3%60.2%
0.3%59.7%
0.2%59.2%
0.2%59.2%
0.2%58.2%
0.3%57.6%
0.1%56.0%
0.5%55.6%
0.1%55.3%
0.5%54.1%
0.7%52.4%
0.4%50.8%
1.0%50.0%
0.8%49.6%
0.4%49.3%
0.9%47.3%
0.8%46.8%
1.3%45.3%
1.4%44.0%
1.7%41.4%
2.8%39.5%
1.6%35.1%
5.7%Any 3 losses
11.2%
29.3%90.9%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%65.2%
0.1%64.4%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.3%
0.1%59.0%
<0.1%57.3%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%54.2%
0.3%53.5%
0.1%53.2%
0.3%52.3%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%48.4%
0.3%48.3%
0.5%46.5%
0.2%46.5%
0.4%44.0%
0.2%40.8%
0.8%39.1%
0.4%36.6%
1.6%11.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.1%
0.2%3.8%
0.2%3.8%
0.2%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.4%
0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
0.4%3.0%
0.4%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
0.5%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
0.6%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
1.1%2.5%
0.5%2.4%
0.1%2.3%
0.3%2.3%
0.6%2.3%
0.3%2.2%
1.6%2.2%
0.4%2.2%
0.3%2.2%
0.5%2.1%
0.3%2.0%
0.2%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.7%
2.2%1.6%
0.3%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
1.0%1.4%
0.8%1.4%
0.1%1.3%
1.9%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
0.9%1.0%
0.5%1.0%
1.2%0.9%
3.5%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%Any 4 losses
2.3%
5.8%25.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.4%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
0.3%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
0.6%1.8%
0.5%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
0.3%1.4%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.3%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
1.0%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21