Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W45-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L19-45 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L27-34 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-33 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:40% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:26% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:44% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:16% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:45% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:50% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:45% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:68% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.6% | 86.5% |
| 6-2 | 8.2% | 28.1% |
| 5-3 | 21.6% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 31.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 25.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 10.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 7.8% (+4.0%) | 1.2% (-2.7%) | |
| 3.6% (-0.2%) | 4.3% (+0.5%) | |
| 3.7% (-0.2%) | 4.2% (+0.3%) | |
| 3.6% (-0.2%) | 4.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 3.8% (+0.0%) | 3.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.8% (-0.0%) | 3.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 3.9% (+0.1%) | 3.8% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Duke
Pittsburgh
Georgia Tech
Virginia
Boston College
Stanford
Virginia TechCCG: 16.2% • Scenario: 0.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
DukeCCG: 7.8% • Scenario: 40.4%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
88.1%
0.8%
100.0%
<0.1%
91.8%
<0.1%
90.3%
0.2%88.6%
<0.1%
87.3%
0.3%
85.7%
<0.1%
84.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
39.6%
4.5%93.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.1%
0.2%85.8%
0.3%84.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%39.9%
0.3%39.4%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%35.4%
0.1%34.9%
<0.1%33.0%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%32.8%
0.3%31.8%
0.2%28.1%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.1%
0.2%27.0%
0.7%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
0.2%22.6%
<0.1%22.0%
0.4%21.5%
<0.1%21.0%
0.4%20.4%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21