Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
13.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W27-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W56-9 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | W73-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W63-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:67% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:31% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:96% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:97% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:86% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:15% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:89% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 2.2% | 99.7% |
| 8-1 | 19.1% | 52.1% |
| 7-2 | 42.6% | 2.1% |
| 6-3 | 28.1% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 7.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 13.6% (+0.5%) | 12.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 17.7% (+4.7%) | 3.3% (-9.7%) | |
| 11.9% (-1.1%) | 15.2% (+2.1%) | |
| 12.5% (-0.5%) | 17.0% (+4.0%) | |
| 13.8% (+0.7%) | 12.7% (-0.3%) | |
| 13.0% (-0.0%) | 13.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Penn StateIndiana
Illinois
Washington
UCLA
RutgersCCG: 28.8% • Scenario: 0.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IndianaCCG: 17.7% • Scenario: 67.5%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.7%
2.2%Any 1 loss
52.1%
19.1%
77.3%
<0.1%
75.7%
0.3%
72.4%
1.1%
71.9%
0.3%67.4%
<0.1%
64.1%
<0.1%
53.4%
4.6%48.6%
12.7%Any 2 losses
2.1%
42.6%33.3%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
0.3%5.3%
0.1%5.0%
1.9%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.7%4.0%
0.5%3.7%
6.0%3.5%
0.5%3.2%
2.3%2.9%
1.5%2.4%
0.2%2.1%
0.6%1.2%
27.2%1.1%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21