Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L10-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W27-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L21-24 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L21-34 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:76% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:72% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:55% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:84% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:85% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:37% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:49% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 7.9% | 43.7% |
| 5-3 | 28.7% | 0.7% |
| 4-4 | 36.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 20.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 6.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 3.7% (+0.0%) | 3.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 3.8% (+0.1%) | 3.4% (-0.3%) | |
| 3.2% (-0.5%) | 4.6% (+1.0%) | |
| 4.0% (+0.3%) | 3.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.5% (-0.2%) | 3.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 3.6% (-0.1%) | 3.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 3.8% (+0.2%) | 3.6% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
Wake Forest
Florida State
California
San José State
Virginia TechCCG: 8.9% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Wake ForestCCG: 4.6% • Scenario: 33.3%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
43.5%
3.5%Any 1 loss
22.6%
7.9%
45.2%
0.4%
43.0%
3.6%1.6%
0.6%
1.2%
1.4%
1.1%
0.7%
0.7%
1.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21