American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-28

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

T1NavyNAVY3-04-028.9%
T1MemphisMEM1-05-061.1%
T1North TexasUNT1-05-053.8%
T1TulaneTULN1-04-122.3%
T1East CarolinaECU1-03-212.3%
6RiceRICE1-13-20.3%
T7UT San AntonioUTSA0-02-211.3%
T7South FloridaUSF0-03-18.8%
T7ArmyARMY0-21-31.0%
T7UABUAB0-12-20.1%
T7FL AtlanticFAU0-11-3<0.1%
T7TempleTEM0-02-2<0.1%
T7CharlotteCLT0-11-3-
T7TulsaTLSA0-22-3-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

126.5%
MemphisMEM
vs
UNTNorth Texas
212.6%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
39.0%
NavyNAVY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
48.8%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
57.6%
North TexasUNT
vs
TULNTulane
64.6%
MemphisMEM
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
74.4%
East CarolinaECU
vs
MEMMemphis
84.2%
East CarolinaECU
vs
UNTNorth Texas
93.9%
MemphisMEM
vs
USFSouth Florida
103.4%
North TexasUNT
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
113.2%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane
122.4%
North TexasUNT
vs
USFSouth Florida
131.7%
East CarolinaECU
vs
NAVYNavy
141.4%
NavyNAVY
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
151.1%
East CarolinaECU
vs
TULNTulane

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 61.1%
Game
MemphisCCG OddsAway
MemphisCCG OddsHome
TulsaTLSA@MemphisMEM
35.4%
(-25.6%)		61.8%
(+0.7%)
FL AtlanticFAU@RiceRICE
61.2%
(+0.1%)		61.0%
(-0.1%)
ArmyARMY@UABUAB
60.8%
(-0.3%)		62.4%
(+1.3%)
CharlotteCLT@South FloridaUSF
60.5%
(-0.6%)		61.2%
(+0.1%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@TempleTEM
60.6%
(-0.5%)		62.9%
(+1.8%)
Air ForceAF@NavyNAVY
61.3%
(+0.2%)		61.0%
(-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Memphis

TulsaTulsaFL AtlanticFlorida AtlanticUABUABCharlotteCharlotteAir ForceAir Force

CCG: 75.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Memphis

MemphisMemphis

CCG: 61.8% • Scenario: 97.5%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-08-17-27-16-36-25-3Overall
MemphisMEM-100%--90.8%-28.4%0.2%61.1%
North TexasUNT-100%--80.2%-17.6%0.1%53.8%
NavyNAVY100%-84.0%40.2%-5.0%--28.9%
TulaneTULN-100%--68.6%-6.2%<0.1%22.3%
East CarolinaECU-100%--67.8%-4.9%<0.1%12.3%
UT San AntonioUTSA-100%--91.0%-27.9%<0.1%11.3%
South FloridaUSF-100%--95.3%-25.6%<0.1%8.8%
ArmyARMY---5.5%-1.3%--1.0%
RiceRICE----97.9%-29.8%0.2%0.3%
UABUAB----100%-26.4%0.2%0.1%
FL AtlanticFAU----80.0%-25.5%-<0.1%
TempleTEM----100%-29.4%0.3%<0.1%
CharlotteCLT------50.0%--
TulsaTLSA---------

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-08-17-27-16-36-25-45-34-54-43-63-52-72-61-81-70-8Avg Wins
MemphisMEM(1-0)-19.1%0.0%0.0%37.1%0.0%29.0%0.0%11.8%0.0%2.7%0.0%0.3%0.0%<0.1%-0.0%-6.6
North TexasUNT(1-0)-18.9%0.0%0.0%37.1%0.0%28.9%0.0%11.8%0.0%2.9%0.0%0.4%0.0%<0.1%-0.0%-6.6
NavyNAVY(3-0)2.2%0.0%14.0%33.0%0.0%33.7%0.0%14.4%0.0%2.5%0.0%0.1%0.0%-----6.5
TulaneTULN(1-0)-4.9%0.0%0.0%22.2%0.0%35.7%0.0%26.1%0.0%9.4%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.1%-0.0%-5.8
East CarolinaECU(1-0)-1.9%0.0%0.0%13.0%0.0%31.4%0.0%33.7%0.0%16.1%0.0%3.5%0.0%0.4%-<0.1%-5.4
ArmyARMY(0-2)---10.1%-31.9%0.0%35.6%0.0%17.9%0.0%4.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%5.3
UT San AntonioUTSA(0-0)-0.7%0.0%0.0%6.0%0.0%18.4%0.0%29.6%0.0%26.7%0.0%13.9%0.0%4.1%0.0%0.6%<0.1%4.6
South FloridaUSF(0-0)-0.4%0.0%0.0%4.2%0.0%17.0%0.0%31.2%0.0%29.3%0.0%14.0%0.0%3.5%0.0%0.4%<0.1%4.6
RiceRICE(1-1)---0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.8%0.0%5.7%0.0%21.4%0.0%38.4%0.0%27.1%-6.5%-3.0
UABUAB(0-1)---0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.4%0.0%2.9%0.0%12.8%0.0%28.3%0.0%33.2%0.0%18.6%3.7%2.4
FL AtlanticFAU(0-1)---0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%1.6%0.0%9.3%0.0%26.9%0.0%36.7%0.0%21.6%3.7%2.2
TempleTEM(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%6.5%0.0%20.4%0.0%34.9%0.0%28.5%8.4%1.9
CharlotteCLT(0-1)---0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%7.1%0.0%25.5%0.0%43.9%22.3%1.2
TulsaTLSA(0-2)-----0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.4%0.0%4.7%0.0%22.4%0.0%43.1%29.4%1.0

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com