Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
61.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W32-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W55-26 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:98% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:87% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:80% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:86% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:69% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:67% | |
| 14 | 11/27 | Win prob:72% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 19.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 37.1% | 90.8% |
| 6-2 | 29.0% | 28.4% |
| 5-3 | 11.8% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 35.4% (-25.6%) | 61.8% (+0.7%) | |
| 61.2% (+0.1%) | 61.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 60.8% (-0.3%) | 62.4% (+1.3%) | |
| 60.5% (-0.6%) | 61.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 60.6% (-0.5%) | 62.9% (+1.8%) | |
| 61.3% (+0.2%) | 61.0% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Tulsa
Florida Atlantic
UAB
Charlotte
Air ForceCCG: 75.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MemphisCCG: 61.8% • Scenario: 97.5%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
19.1%Any 1 loss
90.9%
37.1%98.1%
0.5%
97.7%
3.0%97.7%
3.0%
94.5%
4.8%
91.6%
9.6%
87.3%
8.8%
85.7%
7.4%Any 2 losses
28.4%
29.0%57.7%
0.5%57.1%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%48.1%
0.2%45.0%
0.1%41.6%
0.8%41.3%
1.5%40.9%
1.4%38.7%
0.8%38.1%
0.2%34.9%
1.4%33.8%
1.3%32.1%
1.2%31.9%
0.2%30.8%
1.3%29.8%
2.4%25.3%
2.3%24.0%
4.4%20.9%
3.7%19.7%
1.8%17.1%
3.5%Any 3 losses
0.9%
1.5%12.5%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.7%
0.6%0.7%
0.6%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28