Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W52-42 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L24-38 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-56 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:18% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:49% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:13% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:23% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:41% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:18% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:30% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:70% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.4% | 26.4% |
| 5-3 | 2.9% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 12.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 28.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 33.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 18.6% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 3.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.4%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Tulsa
Florida AtlanticUAB
South Florida
UTSA
NavyCCG: 1.4% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UABCCG: 0.5% • Scenario: 17.6%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
40.9%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%
42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%
37.0%
<0.1%
17.9%
<0.1%
17.4%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
20.3%
0.4%66.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28