Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
22.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W23-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W33-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-27 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-45 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W31-14 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | Win prob:71% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:55% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:54% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:31% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:91% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:86% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:93% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 4.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 22.2% | 68.6% |
| 6-2 | 35.7% | 6.2% |
| 5-3 | 26.1% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 9.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 25.6% (+3.3%) | 22.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 24.2% (+1.9%) | 21.3% (-1.0%) | |
| 22.7% (+0.4%) | 20.6% (-1.7%) | |
| 25.9% (+3.5%) | 21.8% (-0.5%) | |
| 22.2% (-0.1%) | 22.8% (+0.5%) | |
| 21.7% (-0.6%) | 22.5% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Tulsa
UAB
Charlotte
Temple
Air ForceCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Florida Atlantic
ArmyCCG: 24.7% • Scenario: 28.2%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
4.9%Any 1 loss
68.6%
22.2%83.5%
4.0%83.0%
0.5%81.5%
0.4%81.0%
0.7%
78.3%
4.1%
68.2%
1.9%
57.4%
10.6%Any 2 losses
6.2%
35.7%20.0%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.0%
0.3%15.8%
0.4%13.3%
0.3%12.2%
0.6%11.0%
0.4%10.6%
<0.1%10.3%
0.7%7.9%
3.4%7.5%
0.8%7.1%
8.7%7.0%
1.1%6.5%
0.2%6.5%
1.7%6.1%
1.6%5.9%
0.3%4.5%
8.9%3.9%
1.7%3.3%
0.1%3.0%
4.3%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28