Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L27-30 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W24-21 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L38-45 | |
| 5 | 9/25 | L6-28 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:82% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:94% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:45% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:72% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:57% | |
| 12/13 | Win prob:57% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 10.1% | 5.5% |
| 6-3 | 31.9% | 1.3% |
| 5-4 | 35.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 17.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 4.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.9% (+1.9%) | 0.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.2%) | 0.0% (-1.0%) | |
| 1.8% (+0.8%) | 0.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Tulsa
Florida Atlantic
Charlotte
Temple
Air ForceCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ArmyCCG: 1.2% • Scenario: 82.4%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
5.7%
7.3%Any 1 loss
5.3%
8.4%
5.4%
5.6%5.0%
2.8%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28