Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L20-27 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W31-7 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | L20-36 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W37-20 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L21-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:27% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:59% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:44% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:76% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:70% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:43% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:39% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 0.6% | 65.7% |
| 6-3 | 5.2% | 6.2% |
| 5-4 | 17.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 29.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 28.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 14.9% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 3.8% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.3% (+1.6%) | 0.1% (-0.6%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.2%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.1%) | 0.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.1%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
West Virginia
Texas Tech
Kansas State
UCF
Cincinnati
Oklahoma StateCCG: 7.4% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ColoradoCCG: 2.3% • Scenario: 27.7%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
65.7%
0.6%Any 1 loss
6.2%
5.2%
10.0%
0.2%8.8%
0.3%8.0%
1.0%
5.7%
0.8%
5.4%
1.7%
5.2%
0.4%
4.9%
0.8%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28