Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
35.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L7-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W55-0 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:84% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:78% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:89% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:91% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:84% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:33% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:88% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:83% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 10.7% | 99.6% |
| 7-1 | 35.0% | 64.6% |
| 6-2 | 33.7% | 5.2% |
| 5-3 | 15.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 4.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 43.0% (+8.1%) | 34.6% (-0.4%) | |
| 39.1% (+4.1%) | 13.8% (-21.2%) | |
| 34.6% (-0.4%) | 35.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 33.7% (-1.3%) | 35.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 43.0% (+8.0%) | 33.2% (-1.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
KentuckyTexas
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
VanderbiltCCG: 53.3% • Scenario: 0.6%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TexasCCG: 39.1% • Scenario: 83.9%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.6%
10.7%Any 1 loss
64.6%
35.0%87.3%
1.4%
85.7%
2.0%
84.7%
1.0%
83.4%
1.4%82.2%
2.0%80.8%
2.1%79.5%
3.0%
54.0%
22.0%Any 2 losses
5.2%
33.7%20.9%
0.2%20.4%
0.3%20.0%
0.2%19.4%
0.1%16.7%
0.1%14.8%
0.3%14.1%
0.3%14.0%
0.4%12.6%
0.3%11.7%
0.4%10.7%
0.2%10.5%
0.3%10.5%
0.3%10.2%
0.4%9.6%
0.2%9.1%
0.6%9.1%
0.4%8.2%
0.5%8.2%
0.4%7.7%
0.6%5.1%
2.8%4.6%
4.4%4.0%
0.2%3.9%
4.5%3.8%
2.1%3.3%
4.3%3.0%
2.9%2.3%
5.9%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28