Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L13-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W47-7 | |
| 4 | 9/19 | W38-28 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L15-20 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:11% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:75% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:23% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:25% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:46% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 96.5% |
| 7-2 | 2.2% | 13.3% |
| 6-3 | 12.4% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 30.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 34.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 16.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 3.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.4%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Illinois
UCLA
Wisconsin
Michigan State
WashingtonCCG: 12.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MinnesotaCCG: 0.8% • Scenario: 6.2%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
96.5%
0.1%Any 1 loss
13.2%
2.2%34.0%
<0.1%
26.5%
0.2%
21.1%
0.4%15.4%
<0.1%13.4%
<0.1%
11.7%
0.4%
8.1%
1.1%1.7%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28