Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W43-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W63-9 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-6 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-34 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W48-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:42% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:30% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:56% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:72% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:45% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:53% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:32% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.4% | 98.3% |
| 7-2 | 3.5% | 68.1% |
| 6-3 | 13.4% | 10.3% |
| 5-4 | 26.2% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 30.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 19.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 6.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0% (+0.8%) | 3.9% (-0.3%) | |
| 5.0% (+0.8%) | 4.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.0% (-0.1%) | 4.6% (+0.4%) | |
| 4.0% (-0.2%) | 4.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 4.3% (+0.2%) | 4.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 3.9% (-0.3%) | 4.6% (+0.4%) | |
| 4.1% (-0.1%) | 4.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
West Virginia
Houston
Kansas State
UCF
Iowa State
Oklahoma StateCCG: 15.4% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ColoradoCCG: 5.0% • Scenario: 27.7%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.3%
0.4%Any 1 loss
68.2%
3.5%
82.8%
0.1%81.2%
0.3%
80.3%
0.5%78.0%
0.4%
75.4%
0.8%
57.4%
0.9%
48.1%
0.6%Any 2 losses
10.3%
13.4%21.4%
0.4%19.2%
0.2%14.8%
0.6%14.3%
0.3%14.2%
1.0%13.7%
0.4%12.8%
0.1%12.5%
0.2%12.2%
0.2%11.7%
0.7%10.7%
0.7%10.5%
1.2%10.4%
0.4%10.0%
0.4%9.8%
0.6%8.6%
2.0%8.6%
1.2%7.8%
0.5%7.5%
0.4%7.2%
0.8%5.3%
1.3%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28