Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L10-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W27-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L21-24 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L21-34 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:76% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:66% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:51% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:77% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:67% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:28% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:43% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 3.6% | 37.5% |
| 5-3 | 18.9% | 0.5% |
| 4-4 | 33.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 28.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 12.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.6% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.3% (-0.1%) | 2.0% (+0.5%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.1%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.0%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.4%) | 1.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.1%) | 1.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.9% (+0.4%) | 0.1% (-1.4%) | |
| 1.6% (+0.1%) | 1.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.1%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida State
Syracuse
Wake Forest
Virginia
CaliforniaClemson
Boston College
CampbellCCG: 25.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LouisvilleClemsonCCG: 2.0% • Scenario: 60.9%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
38.9%
1.4%Any 1 loss
17.6%
4.3%
37.1%
1.9%
30.7%
0.1%
1.0%
0.4%0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%0.6%
0.7%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28