Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
57.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L17-31 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W73-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-21 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:82% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:68% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:72% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:81% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:81% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 16.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 34.2% | 94.0% |
| 6-2 | 30.0% | 29.0% |
| 5-3 | 14.3% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 4.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 61.2% (+3.5%) | 57.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 56.8% (-0.8%) | 62.1% (+4.4%) | |
| 57.7% (+0.1%) | 57.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 57.4% (-0.3%) | 57.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 29.9% (-27.8%) | 63.9% (+6.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kentucky
Florida
Mississippi StateAlabamaCCG: 77.9% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaCCG: 63.9% • Scenario: 81.8%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
15.2%Any 1 loss
94.3%
32.6%
100.0%
1.7%
96.2%
4.4%
94.6%
5.7%
94.0%
7.0%
93.4%
3.4%
93.2%
3.5%
92.9%
3.4%
92.5%
3.5%Any 2 losses
36.1%
30.2%96.9%
0.5%96.5%
0.3%94.0%
0.6%93.7%
0.8%93.0%
0.4%91.7%
0.4%91.4%
0.4%38.4%
1.0%33.9%
1.6%33.6%
0.8%33.2%
0.9%31.4%
2.0%31.1%
1.7%30.9%
1.0%30.7%
1.6%30.2%
1.4%29.4%
0.7%28.8%
0.8%28.8%
1.6%28.6%
1.1%27.3%
0.8%26.4%
1.6%26.2%
0.8%26.0%
1.4%25.3%
2.8%24.4%
1.3%23.7%
0.7%22.2%
1.3%Any 3 losses
23.3%
3.9%37.8%
0.2%37.5%
0.1%36.6%
0.1%35.2%
<0.1%34.1%
0.1%33.5%
0.2%32.9%
<0.1%32.5%
0.1%31.9%
<0.1%30.9%
0.1%28.9%
0.2%28.8%
0.3%28.2%
0.2%27.5%
0.2%26.6%
<0.1%25.8%
0.1%24.7%
0.1%24.6%
<0.1%22.4%
0.1%22.3%
0.2%22.0%
0.2%0.7%
0.3%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
0.4%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28