American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-05

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

T1NavyNAVY3-05-027.7%
T1MemphisMEM2-06-065.8%
T1North TexasUNT1-05-051.4%
T1East CarolinaECU1-03-221.9%
T1TulaneTULN1-04-121.3%
T1South FloridaUSF1-04-17.8%
T1TempleTEM1-03-20.2%
8FL AtlanticFAU1-12-3<0.1%
T9ArmyARMY1-22-30.6%
T9RiceRICE1-23-3<0.1%
T11UT San AntonioUTSA0-12-33.2%
T11UABUAB0-22-3<0.1%
T11CharlotteCLT0-21-4-
T11TulsaTLSA0-32-4-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

127.2%
MemphisMEM
vs
UNTNorth Texas
213.6%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
39.9%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
49.6%
East CarolinaECU
vs
MEMMemphis
57.8%
NavyNAVY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
66.9%
East CarolinaECU
vs
UNTNorth Texas
76.2%
North TexasUNT
vs
TULNTulane
83.8%
MemphisMEM
vs
USFSouth Florida
92.6%
East CarolinaECU
vs
NAVYNavy
102.5%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane
112.0%
North TexasUNT
vs
USFSouth Florida
121.9%
East CarolinaECU
vs
TULNTulane
131.4%
MemphisMEM
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
140.8%
North TexasUNT
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
150.7%
NavyNAVY
vs
USFSouth Florida

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 65.8%
Game
MemphisCCG OddsAway
MemphisCCG OddsHome
NavyNAVY@TempleTEM
65.4%
(-0.4%)		67.9%
(+2.1%)
CharlotteCLT@ArmyARMY
65.3%
(-0.5%)		65.9%
(+0.1%)
UABUAB@FL AtlanticFAU
66.1%
(+0.3%)		65.5%
(-0.3%)
East CarolinaECU@TulaneTULN
64.8%
(-1.0%)		66.4%
(+0.6%)
RiceRICE@UT San AntonioUTSA
67.7%
(+1.9%)		65.4%
(-0.4%)
South FloridaUSF@North TexasUNT
72.1%
(+6.3%)		63.7%
(-2.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Memphis

TempleTempleCharlotteCharlotteFL AtlanticFlorida AtlanticEast CarolinaEast CarolinaRiceRiceSouth FloridaSouth Florida

CCG: 90.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Memphis

South FloridaSouth Florida

CCG: 72.1% • Scenario: 24.8%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-08-17-27-16-36-25-35-4Overall
MemphisMEM-100%--91.5%-29.3%<0.1%-65.8%
North TexasUNT-100%--69.6%-12.3%<0.1%-51.4%
NavyNAVY100%-85.1%33.5%-5.0%--<0.1%27.7%
East CarolinaECU-100%--69.4%-6.2%<0.1%-21.9%
TulaneTULN-100%--70.4%-7.7%<0.1%-21.3%
South FloridaUSF-100%--91.2%-19.0%<0.1%-7.8%
UT San AntonioUTSA----97.1%-31.4%<0.1%-3.2%
ArmyARMY---4.4%-1.1%---0.6%
TempleTEM-100%--89.5%-30.9%<0.1%-0.2%
FL AtlanticFAU----85.7%-15.3%<0.1%-<0.1%
UABUAB------34.2%0.1%-<0.1%
RiceRICE------38.1%0.4%-<0.1%
CharlotteCLT----------
TulsaTLSA----------

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-08-17-27-16-36-25-45-34-54-43-63-52-72-61-81-70-8Avg Wins
MemphisMEM(2-0)-22.0%0.0%0.0%39.2%0.0%27.3%0.0%9.6%0.0%1.8%0.0%0.2%-<0.1%---6.7
North TexasUNT(1-0)-21.6%0.0%0.0%37.9%0.0%27.5%0.0%10.3%0.0%2.4%0.0%0.3%0.0%<0.1%-0.0%-6.7
NavyNAVY(3-0)2.1%0.0%14.6%34.2%0.0%33.2%0.0%13.5%0.0%2.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%-----6.5
East CarolinaECU(1-0)-4.6%0.0%0.0%21.6%0.0%36.5%0.0%27.5%0.0%8.4%0.0%1.2%0.0%<0.1%-0.0%-5.8
TulaneTULN(1-0)-4.0%0.0%0.0%20.8%0.0%35.7%0.0%27.2%0.0%10.4%0.0%1.8%0.0%0.1%-0.0%-5.7
ArmyARMY(1-2)---6.5%-27.1%0.0%39.3%0.0%22.6%0.0%4.3%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%-5.1
South FloridaUSF(1-0)-0.4%0.0%0.0%4.4%0.0%18.0%0.0%33.6%0.0%29.1%0.0%12.1%0.0%2.3%-0.1%-4.7
UT San AntonioUTSA(0-1)---0.0%1.0%0.0%7.2%0.0%21.2%0.0%31.6%0.0%25.5%0.0%11.0%0.0%2.3%0.2%3.8
TempleTEM(1-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.5%0.0%3.6%0.0%15.8%0.0%35.0%0.0%34.0%-11.0%-2.7
FL AtlanticFAU(1-1)---0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%2.4%0.0%14.1%0.0%38.6%0.0%36.2%-8.6%-2.7
RiceRICE(1-2)-----0.0%<0.1%0.0%1.0%0.0%7.8%0.0%28.3%0.0%44.0%-18.9%-2.3
UABUAB(0-2)-----0.0%<0.1%0.0%1.5%0.0%9.5%0.0%27.3%0.0%36.0%0.0%21.1%4.4%2.2
CharlotteCLT(0-2)-----0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.5%0.0%4.8%0.0%22.3%0.0%46.8%25.7%1.1
TulsaTLSA(0-3)-------0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%5.1%0.0%23.2%0.0%43.6%27.8%1.1

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com