Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W52-42 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L24-38 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-56 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L13-31 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:53% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:11% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:23% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:40% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:16% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:30% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:70% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 0.1% | 34.2% |
| 5-3 | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 9.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 27.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 36.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 21.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 4.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Temple
CharlotteUAB
East Carolina
Rice
North TexasCCG: 2.1% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UABCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 53.2%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
36.8%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
10.5%
0.2%
33.3%
<0.1%
0.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05