Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W23-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W33-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-27 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-45 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W31-14 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | Win prob:61% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:63% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:53% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:27% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:92% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:86% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:93% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 4.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 20.8% | 70.4% |
| 6-2 | 35.7% | 7.7% |
| 5-3 | 27.2% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 10.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 20.3% (-1.1%) | 26.9% (+5.5%) | |
| 21.0% (-0.4%) | 21.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.7% (-1.7%) | 23.3% (+1.9%) | |
| 5.7% (-15.7%) | 31.4% (+10.0%) | |
| 19.3% (-2.1%) | 21.8% (+0.5%) | |
| 23.6% (+2.3%) | 20.6% (-0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Temple
Charlotte
Florida AtlanticTulane
Rice
South FloridaCCG: 55.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TulaneCCG: 31.4% • Scenario: 61.0%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
4.0%Any 1 loss
70.4%
20.8%86.4%
0.4%
85.1%
2.5%
85.1%
3.6%84.7%
0.4%82.0%
0.6%
68.3%
2.6%
61.1%
10.8%Any 2 losses
7.7%
35.7%23.6%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%18.6%
0.2%17.7%
0.2%17.2%
0.3%16.4%
0.6%16.4%
0.3%15.5%
0.4%15.3%
2.1%11.8%
<0.1%9.7%
6.4%9.4%
0.2%8.6%
0.9%8.0%
1.0%7.6%
9.7%7.5%
0.4%7.1%
1.9%5.4%
1.4%5.0%
2.3%4.3%
0.2%2.5%
7.1%Any 3 losses
0.7%
0.3%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05