Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L27-30 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W24-21 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L38-45 | |
| 5 | 9/25 | L6-28 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-13 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:91% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:37% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:68% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:95% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:48% | |
| 12/13 | Win prob:48% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 6.5% | 4.4% |
| 6-3 | 27.1% | 1.1% |
| 5-4 | 39.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 22.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 4.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 1.2% (+0.6%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.6%) | 0.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.2%) | 0.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.2%) | 0.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
TempleArmy
UAB
Tulane
Rice
South FloridaCCG: 2.2% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ArmyUAB
UTSACCG: 0.9% • Scenario: 39.4%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
4.4%
4.3%Any 1 loss
4.3%
6.9%
4.4%
4.8%
4.3%
2.1%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05