Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
65.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W32-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W55-26 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W45-7 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:89% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:82% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:88% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:73% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:62% | |
| 14 | 11/27 | Win prob:76% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 22.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 39.2% | 91.5% |
| 6-2 | 27.3% | 29.3% |
| 5-3 | 9.6% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 65.4% (-0.4%) | 67.9% (+2.1%) | |
| 65.3% (-0.5%) | 65.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 66.1% (+0.3%) | 65.5% (-0.3%) | |
| 64.8% (-1.0%) | 66.4% (+0.6%) | |
| 67.7% (+1.9%) | 65.4% (-0.4%) | |
| 72.1% (+6.3%) | 63.7% (-2.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Temple
Charlotte
Florida Atlantic
East Carolina
Rice
South FloridaCCG: 90.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
South FloridaCCG: 72.1% • Scenario: 24.8%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
22.0%Any 1 loss
91.5%
39.2%99.1%
3.1%
99.1%
2.8%97.0%
4.8%89.8%
13.3%
88.4%
8.2%
88.2%
7.1%Any 2 losses
29.3%
27.3%68.4%
0.4%47.5%
0.7%46.9%
0.6%42.1%
1.1%40.8%
1.7%40.4%
1.0%39.7%
1.9%33.0%
0.9%31.7%
0.9%29.4%
2.9%27.5%
1.7%22.6%
5.1%21.7%
1.5%20.6%
2.6%20.5%
4.3%Any 3 losses
0.8%
0.4%0.9%
0.2%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05