NavyMidshipmen

5-0 T1st (3-0) in AAC

Data from 2025-10-05 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

27.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsVMIVMI	W52-7
2	9/06	vsUABUAB	W38-24
3	9/13	@TulsaTLSA	W42-23
5	9/27	vsRiceRICE	W21-13
6	10/04	vsAir ForceAF	W34-31
7	10/11	@TempleTEM	Win prob:84%
9	10/25	vsFlorida AtlanticFAU	Win prob:91%
10	11/01	@North TexasUNT	Win prob:33%
11	11/08	@Notre DameND	Win prob:2%
12	11/15	vsSouth FloridaUSF	Win prob:67%
14	11/27	@MemphisMEM	Win prob:24%
	12/13	vsArmyARMY(N)	Win prob:52%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	2.1%	100.0%
8-1	14.6%	85.1%
7-2	34.2%	33.5%
6-3	33.2%	5.0%
5-4	13.5%	0.0%
4-5	2.1%	0%
3-6	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

49.9%

28.7%

9.6%

9.3%

2.6%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
NavyNAVY@TempleTEM	31.2% (+3.5%)	9.3% (-18.4%)
CharlotteCLT@ArmyARMY	27.5% (-0.2%)	27.7% (+0.0%)
UABUAB@Florida AtlanticFAU	28.1% (+0.4%)	27.3% (-0.4%)
East CarolinaECU@TulaneTULN	26.8% (-0.9%)	28.3% (+0.6%)
RiceRICE@UTSAUTSA	31.5% (+3.8%)	26.8% (-0.9%)
South FloridaUSF@North TexasUNT	29.5% (+1.8%)	27.1% (-0.6%)

Best Winner Combination for

Navy

Army

UAB

Tulane

Rice

South Florida

CCG: 41.0% • Scenario: 1.2%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Navy

CCG: 31.2% • Scenario: 83.9%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

98.2%

2.3%

100.0%

2.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

88.2%

<0.1%

87.5%

<0.1%

74.8%

0.1%

Any 2 losses

83.0%

15.0%

100.0%

1.9%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

94.0%

0.2%

93.3%

<0.1%

92.8%

1.0%

91.8%

0.4%

85.2%

0.1%

83.1%

4.3%

80.7%

<0.1%

80.3%

6.6%

33.3%

<0.1%

21.4%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

8.7%

<0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

3.8%

0.2%

Any 3 losses

33.3%

34.0%

93.6%

0.9%

92.6%

0.2%

90.2%

0.4%

81.7%

3.9%

79.6%

6.0%

42.9%

<0.1%

35.7%

<0.1%

29.4%

<0.1%

21.9%

0.2%

21.4%

<0.1%

19.2%

0.1%

18.0%

0.8%

16.9%

0.4%

15.4%

<0.1%

14.8%

1.3%

14.7%

0.6%

13.8%

<0.1%

11.4%

3.2%

11.4%

<0.1%

10.2%

2.1%

5.8%

0.2%

5.4%

13.3%

Any 4 losses

7.9%

20.5%

37.8%

<0.1%

22.9%

0.2%

17.5%

0.4%

15.9%

0.8%

15.2%

<0.1%

15.2%

1.1%

15.1%

0.6%

10.6%

2.9%

9.5%

2.0%

4.9%

12.3%

0.8%

0.1%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com