Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L26-45 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W27-20 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | W66-24 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W34-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L3-38 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L18-31 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:46% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:24% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:63% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:6% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:1% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:53% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 0.2% | 33.0% |
| 5-3 | 4.7% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 22.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 38.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 27.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 6.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
NC State
Boston College
Wake Forest
Florida State
Georgia Tech
SMUCCG: 1.2% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Boston CollegeSMUCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 30.7%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
33.3%
<0.1%
33.0%
0.2%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05