Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-26 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W72-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L41-44 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W56-24 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W41-34 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:83% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:26% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:82% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:68% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:99% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:69% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:67% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 5.5% | 75.7% |
| 6-2 | 26.0% | 5.7% |
| 5-3 | 36.3% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 23.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 7.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 5.9% (+0.2%) | 5.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.6% (+0.9%) | 5.4% (-0.3%) | |
| 5.2% (-0.5%) | 6.6% (+0.9%) | |
| 0.5% (-5.2%) | 6.8% (+1.1%) | |
| 6.2% (+0.6%) | 5.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 5.3% (-0.3%) | 7.5% (+1.9%) | |
| 5.4% (-0.3%) | 5.7% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
South Carolina
OklahomaTennessee
Florida
Auburn
Washington StateCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TennesseeCCG: 6.8% • Scenario: 82.7%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
75.7%
5.5%Any 1 loss
5.9%
25.7%
72.6%
<0.1%
12.2%
1.2%8.4%
2.3%
7.6%
2.7%
7.5%
1.1%6.5%
2.5%
4.2%
15.8%Any 2 losses
4.9%
0.3%16.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%3.3%
0.2%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05