Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W17-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W23-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W20-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W56-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L19-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:67% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:41% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:58% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:18% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:76% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:91% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:43% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.9% | 89.7% |
| 6-2 | 8.2% | 18.1% |
| 5-3 | 24.6% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 34.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 23.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 7.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% (-1.9%) | 3.3% (+0.9%) | |
| 2.8% (+0.5%) | 2.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.2% (-0.1%) | 2.6% (+0.3%) | |
| 2.6% (+0.3%) | 2.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.3% (-0.0%) | 2.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (-0.1%) | 3.0% (+0.7%) | |
| 2.4% (+0.1%) | 2.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
LSU
Oklahoma
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Washington StateCCG: 16.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LSUCCG: 3.3% • Scenario: 67.2%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
89.8%
0.8%Any 1 loss
18.8%
7.5%
89.0%
<0.1%
31.3%
0.4%29.7%
0.3%
24.4%
1.2%
24.0%
0.6%21.2%
1.1%11.8%
3.8%Any 2 losses
11.2%
1.3%26.8%
0.1%25.5%
<0.1%25.0%
0.1%24.4%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%14.0%
0.4%0.7%
0.6%1.1%
<0.1%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05