Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W35-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W24-13 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W24-17 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W44-0 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L6-23 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:55% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:29% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:34% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:18% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:60% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.4% | 96.6% |
| 6-2 | 3.8% | 33.6% |
| 5-3 | 15.4% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 30.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 31.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 15.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.6% (-0.0%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (-0.0%) | 1.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.6% (-0.1%) | 1.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.2% (+0.6%) | 1.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 1.8% (+0.1%) | 1.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.8% (+1.1%) | 0.3% (-1.3%) | |
| 1.6% (-0.0%) | 1.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.0%) | 1.6% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Auburn
Arkansas
LSU
Tennessee
GeorgiaOklahoma
Kentucky
Mississippi StateCCG: 10.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OklahomaCCG: 2.8% • Scenario: 54.8%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
96.6%
0.4%Any 1 loss
33.6%
3.8%
48.4%
0.3%
46.6%
0.3%44.7%
0.2%43.9%
0.7%
27.5%
0.8%
25.7%
1.5%Any 2 losses
0.7%
0.4%0.8%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12