Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-12

Atlantic Coast ConferenceConference Standings

T1DukeDUKE3-04-246.8%
T1Georgia TechGT3-06-023.0%
T1SMUSMU2-04-221.7%
T1Miami FLMIA1-05-063.1%
5VirginiaUVA3-15-125.3%
6PittsburghPITT2-14-27.2%
T7ClemsonCLEM2-23-30.8%
T7NC StateNCSU2-24-30.3%
T7LouisvilleLOU1-14-111.5%
T7CaliforniaCAL1-14-20.2%
T11SyracuseSYR1-23-3<0.1%
T11Virginia TechVT1-22-5<0.1%
T11Wake ForestWAKE1-24-2<0.1%
T11StanfordSTAN1-22-4-
T15North CarolinaUNC0-12-3<0.1%
T15Boston CollegeBC0-41-5-
T15Florida StFSU0-33-3-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Matchups

125.3%
DukeDUKE
vs
MIAMiami FL
212.4%
Miami FLMIA
vs
UVAVirginia
311.0%
Georgia TechGT
vs
MIAMiami FL
48.1%
Miami FLMIA
vs
SMUSMU
56.7%
DukeDUKE
vs
SMUSMU
65.0%
DukeDUKE
vs
GTGeorgia Tech
74.0%
DukeDUKE
vs
UVAVirginia
83.5%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
MIAMiami FL
93.4%
DukeDUKE
vs
LOULouisville
102.9%
SMUSMU
vs
UVAVirginia
112.6%
Georgia TechGT
vs
UVAVirginia
122.5%
Georgia TechGT
vs
SMUSMU
132.3%
Miami FLMIA
vs
PITTPittsburgh
142.2%
DukeDUKE
vs
PITTPittsburgh
152.1%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
UVAVirginia

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 63.1%
Game
Miami FLCCG OddsAway
Miami FLCCG OddsHome
North CarolinaUNC@CaliforniaCAL
63.5%
(+0.4%)		62.9%
(-0.2%)
PittsburghPITT@SyracuseSYR
62.8%
(-0.3%)		63.8%
(+0.8%)
LouisvilleLOU@Miami FLMIA
35.7%
(-27.4%)		73.7%
(+10.6%)
SMUSMU@ClemsonCLEM
62.3%
(-0.8%)		63.7%
(+0.6%)
UConnCONN@Boston CollegeBC
63.0%
(-0.1%)		63.3%
(+0.2%)
Washington StWSU@VirginiaUVA
63.4%
(+0.3%)		63.0%
(-0.1%)
Georgia TechGT@DukeDUKE
64.8%
(+1.8%)		62.3%
(-0.8%)
Florida StFSU@StanfordSTAN
63.1%
(+0.0%)		63.0%
(-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Miami FL

North CarolinaNorth CarolinaSyracuseSyracuseMiami FLMiamiBoston CollegeBoston CollegeWashington StWashington StateGeorgia TechGeorgia TechStanfordStanford

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Miami FL

Miami FLMiami

CCG: 73.7% • Scenario: 72.1%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-08-17-17-26-26-35-3Overall
Miami FLMIA100%-86.0%-15.3%-<0.1%63.1%
DukeDUKE100%-86.1%-16.4%-<0.1%46.8%
VirginiaUVA-98.8%-40.3%-0.4%-25.3%
Georgia TechGT100%-70.2%-7.9%-<0.1%23.0%
SMUSMU100%-73.5%-6.8%-<0.1%21.7%
LouisvilleLOU--96.8%-22.2%-<0.1%11.5%
PittsburghPITT--85.1%-6.5%--7.2%
ClemsonCLEM----8.2%-<0.1%0.8%
NC StateNCSU---66.4%-0.5%-0.3%
CaliforniaCAL--73.2%-5.5%--0.2%
SyracuseSYR----31.8%-<0.1%<0.1%
North CarolinaUNC--78.6%-6.5%-<0.1%<0.1%
Virginia TechVT----32.9%--<0.1%
Wake ForestWAKE----28.2%-<0.1%<0.1%
Boston CollegeBC--------
Florida StFSU------<0.1%-
StanfordSTAN----12.5%---

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-08-17-17-26-26-35-35-44-44-53-53-62-62-71-70-8Avg Wins
Miami FLMIA(1-0)24.0%0.0%40.8%0.0%25.8%0.0%8.0%0.0%1.2%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-6.8
VirginiaUVA(3-1)-11.1%0.0%35.3%0.0%35.1%0.0%15.2%0.0%3.1%0.0%0.2%----6.4
DukeDUKE(3-0)10.8%0.0%35.0%0.0%35.4%0.0%15.6%0.0%3.0%0.0%0.2%-----6.3
Georgia TechGT(3-0)4.8%0.0%21.9%0.0%36.2%0.0%27.0%0.0%9.1%0.0%1.1%-----5.8
SMUSMU(2-0)4.3%0.0%20.4%0.0%35.2%0.0%27.9%0.0%10.3%0.0%1.8%0.0%<0.1%---5.7
PittsburghPITT(2-1)--6.3%0.0%28.5%0.0%38.9%0.0%21.1%0.0%4.8%0.0%0.4%---5.1
LouisvilleLOU(1-1)--5.7%0.0%26.8%0.0%38.6%0.0%22.7%0.0%5.7%0.0%0.6%0.0%<0.1%-5.0
ClemsonCLEM(2-2)----9.4%0.0%33.3%0.0%37.5%0.0%17.1%0.0%2.7%---4.3
NC StateNCSU(2-2)---0.4%0.0%5.4%0.0%24.3%0.0%39.6%0.0%25.4%0.0%4.9%--4.0
CaliforniaCAL(1-1)--0.1%0.0%1.9%0.0%11.3%0.0%28.8%0.0%35.4%0.0%19.0%0.0%3.6%-3.3
Florida StFSU(0-3)------7.1%0.0%30.6%0.0%38.4%0.0%19.4%0.0%4.2%0.3%3.2
SyracuseSYR(1-2)----0.2%0.0%4.4%0.0%22.8%0.0%41.8%0.0%25.6%0.0%5.2%-3.0
Wake ForestWAKE(1-2)----<0.1%0.0%1.7%0.0%10.8%0.0%32.1%0.0%41.4%0.0%13.8%-2.5
Virginia TechVT(1-2)----<0.1%0.0%1.5%0.0%10.4%0.0%31.6%0.0%41.0%0.0%15.3%-2.4
North CarolinaUNC(0-1)--<0.1%0.0%0.5%0.0%3.3%0.0%12.5%0.0%26.9%0.0%32.5%0.0%20.0%4.4%2.3
StanfordSTAN(1-2)----<0.1%0.0%0.4%0.0%4.7%0.0%21.6%0.0%43.3%0.0%30.0%-2.0
Boston CollegeBC(0-4)--------<0.1%0.0%2.4%0.0%16.6%0.0%43.0%38.0%0.8

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com