LouisvilleCardinals

4-1 T7th (1-1) in ACC

Data from 2025-10-12 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

11.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsEastern KentuckyEKU	W51-17
2	9/05	vsJames MadisonJMU	W28-14
4	9/20	vsBowling GreenBGSU	W40-17
5	9/27	@PittsburghPITT	W34-27
6	10/04	vsVirginiaUVA	L27-30
8	10/17	@MiamiMIA	Win prob:28%
9	10/25	vsBoston CollegeBC	Win prob:93%
10	11/01	@Virginia TechVT	Win prob:80%
11	11/08	vsCaliforniaCAL	Win prob:90%
12	11/14	vsClemsonCLEM	Win prob:64%
13	11/22	@SMUSMU	Win prob:48%
14	11/29	vsKentuckyUK	Win prob:83%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-1	5.7%	96.8%
6-2	26.8%	22.2%
5-3	38.6%	0.0%
4-4	22.7%	0%
3-5	5.7%	0%
2-6	0.6%	0%
1-7	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

31.6%

31.3%

19.4%

11.6%

6.0%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
North CarolinaUNC@CaliforniaCAL	11.1% (-0.4%)	11.7% (+0.2%)
PittsburghPITT@SyracuseSYR	11.5% (-0.0%)	11.5% (+0.1%)
LouisvilleLOU@MiamiMIA	31.9% (+20.4%)	3.6% (-7.9%)
SMUSMU@ClemsonCLEM	10.3% (-1.2%)	12.4% (+0.9%)
UConnCONN@Boston CollegeBC	11.4% (-0.1%)	11.7% (+0.2%)
Washington StateWSU@VirginiaUVA	11.6% (+0.1%)	11.5% (-0.0%)
Georgia TechGT@DukeDUKE	12.1% (+0.6%)	11.2% (-0.3%)
Florida StateFSU@StanfordSTAN	11.5% (-0.0%)	11.5% (+0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

North Carolina

Syracuse

Louisville

SMU

Boston College

Washington State

Georgia Tech

Stanford

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Louisville

CCG: 31.9% • Scenario: 27.9%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

96.7%

4.8%

Any 1 loss

25.1%

23.1%

97.2%

0.9%

38.1%

0.5%

32.4%

1.2%

29.9%

0.4%

29.8%

2.6%

24.8%

5.2%

17.3%

12.2%

Any 2 losses

22.8%

4.6%

35.7%

<0.1%

35.4%

0.2%

31.9%

0.1%

30.1%

0.5%

26.9%

1.1%

17.4%

2.5%

Any 3 losses

1.0%

0.2%

1.4%

<0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com