Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W61-9 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L24-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L27-34 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W48-7 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W34-31 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:70% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:75% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:86% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:5% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:50% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:28% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 6.3% | 85.1% |
| 6-2 | 28.5% | 6.5% |
| 5-3 | 38.9% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 21.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 4.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 7.4% (+0.1%) | 7.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.1% (+2.8%) | 0.6% (-6.6%) | |
| 6.8% (-0.5%) | 7.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 6.4% (-0.8%) | 7.9% (+0.6%) | |
| 7.2% (-0.0%) | 7.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.4% (+0.1%) | 7.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.0% (+1.8%) | 6.4% (-0.8%) | |
| 7.2% (+0.0%) | 7.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
North Carolina
Syracuse
Louisville
SMU
Boston College
Washington State
Georgia Tech
StanfordCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
PittsburghCCG: 10.1% • Scenario: 70.1%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
85.3%
0.3%Any 1 loss
70.3%
7.4%
85.1%
6.0%10.9%
<0.1%
10.7%
0.1%8.8%
0.1%7.8%
0.3%
5.5%
0.8%Any 2 losses
6.5%
27.1%14.2%
0.9%10.1%
2.1%6.6%
2.5%6.2%
5.9%5.7%
15.6%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12