Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L45-48 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-35 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-18 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W34-10 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:43% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:79% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:37% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:84% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:52% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:79% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 4.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 20.4% | 73.5% |
| 6-2 | 35.2% | 6.8% |
| 5-3 | 27.9% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 10.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 21.4% (-0.3%) | 21.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 21.2% (-0.5%) | 22.9% (+1.2%) | |
| 23.3% (+1.5%) | 21.1% (-0.6%) | |
| 37.1% (+15.4%) | 10.1% (-11.6%) | |
| 21.7% (-0.0%) | 21.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 21.1% (-0.6%) | 21.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 21.4% (-0.4%) | 21.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 21.6% (-0.1%) | 22.0% (+0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
North Carolina
Syracuse
MiamiSMU
Boston College
Washington State
Georgia Tech
StanfordCCG: 80.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
SMUCCG: 37.1% • Scenario: 42.9%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
4.3%Any 1 loss
73.5%
20.4%85.2%
0.8%
85.0%
1.2%
81.5%
1.2%
81.4%
4.0%
77.6%
5.8%61.7%
7.5%Any 2 losses
6.8%
35.2%20.0%
0.2%16.1%
0.3%15.7%
1.5%15.5%
1.5%14.1%
1.1%11.4%
0.2%11.4%
0.7%9.6%
1.0%7.6%
1.4%7.4%
2.1%6.8%
1.1%5.8%
1.9%5.3%
5.3%5.0%
6.7%4.0%
10.0%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12