Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
46.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W45-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L19-45 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L27-34 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-33 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W38-3 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W45-21 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:68% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:36% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:57% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:65% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:81% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 10.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 35.0% | 86.1% |
| 6-2 | 35.4% | 16.4% |
| 5-3 | 15.6% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 3.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 46.9% (+0.1%) | 46.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 46.0% (-0.9%) | 48.8% (+2.0%) | |
| 48.0% (+1.2%) | 46.4% (-0.5%) | |
| 41.4% (-5.4%) | 50.9% (+4.0%) | |
| 47.0% (+0.2%) | 46.3% (-0.5%) | |
| 46.5% (-0.4%) | 46.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 17.5% (-29.3%) | 60.4% (+13.6%) | |
| 46.8% (+0.0%) | 46.7% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
North Carolina
Syracuse
Louisville
Clemson
Boston College
Washington StateDuke
Florida StateCCG: 78.1% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
DukeCCG: 60.4% • Scenario: 68.2%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
6.2%Any 1 loss
88.7%
24.7%
100.0%
4.7%97.0%
1.6%
89.3%
1.2%87.6%
11.1%
81.9%
3.3%
77.8%
2.9%Any 2 losses
46.2%
35.3%95.9%
1.1%87.8%
8.4%87.8%
0.9%82.6%
2.5%78.9%
2.2%30.8%
0.3%27.8%
2.7%26.3%
2.0%17.2%
0.9%17.0%
0.7%16.0%
0.5%14.5%
0.6%13.7%
5.9%11.7%
5.0%7.3%
1.6%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12