VirginiaCavaliers

5-1 5th (3-1) in ACC

Data from 2025-10-12 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

25.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsCoastal CarolinaCCU	W48-7
2	9/06	@NC StateNCSU	L31-35
3	9/13	vsWilliam & MaryW&M	W55-16
4	9/20	vsStanfordSTAN	W48-20
5	9/26	vsFlorida StateFSU	W46-38
6	10/04	@LouisvilleLOU	W30-27
8	10/18	vsWashington StateWSU	Win prob:84%
9	10/25	@North CarolinaUNC	Win prob:76%
10	11/01	@CaliforniaCAL	Win prob:68%
11	11/08	vsWake ForestWAKE	Win prob:80%
12	11/15	@DukeDUKE	Win prob:35%
14	11/29	vsVirginia TechVT	Win prob:77%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-1	11.1%	98.8%
7-2	35.3%	40.3%
6-3	35.1%	0.4%
5-4	15.2%	0%
4-5	3.1%	0%
3-6	0.2%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

51.6%

16.5%

12.1%

11.0%

8.8%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
North CarolinaUNC@CaliforniaCAL	25.3% (+0.1%)	25.3% (-0.0%)
PittsburghPITT@SyracuseSYR	24.8% (-0.5%)	26.4% (+1.1%)
LouisvilleLOU@MiamiMIA	28.4% (+3.1%)	24.1% (-1.2%)
SMUSMU@ClemsonCLEM	22.1% (-3.1%)	27.6% (+2.4%)
UConnCONN@Boston CollegeBC	25.2% (-0.1%)	25.5% (+0.2%)
Washington StateWSU@VirginiaUVA	25.1% (-0.1%)	25.3% (+0.0%)
Georgia TechGT@DukeDUKE	25.8% (+0.5%)	25.0% (-0.3%)
Florida StateFSU@StanfordSTAN	25.3% (+0.0%)	25.1% (-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

California

Syracuse

Louisville

Clemson

Boston College

Washington State

Duke

Stanford

CCG: 62.5% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Clemson

CCG: 27.6% • Scenario: 57.1%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

98.8%

9.3%

Any 1 loss

43.7%

31.6%

98.8%

1.8%

55.8%

3.0%

55.2%

2.4%

54.9%

2.8%

52.7%

4.4%

30.2%

17.2%

Any 2 losses

19.1%

11.6%

55.1%

0.5%

54.2%

0.8%

52.8%

0.5%

51.9%

0.4%

29.0%

3.2%

1.2%

0.9%

1.2%

0.7%

1.1%

0.8%

1.0%

1.1%

1.0%

1.3%

0.9%

1.4%

Any 3 losses

0.8%

0.4%

0.8%

0.3%

0.7%

0.1%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com