Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-15 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W35-3 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L0-34 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W28-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L21-45 | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:67% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:38% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:32% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:10% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:64% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:21% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 73.2% |
| 6-2 | 1.9% | 5.5% |
| 5-3 | 11.3% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 28.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 35.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 19.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.2%) | 0.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
California
Syracuse
Louisville
SMU
UConn
Virginia
Georgia Tech
StanfordCCG: 2.5% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
CaliforniaCCG: 0.3% • Scenario: 66.8%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
73.2%
0.1%Any 1 loss
5.5%
1.9%
14.9%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%
9.6%
0.2%7.8%
0.2%5.3%
0.4%3.2%
0.9%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12