Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
81.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W27-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W56-9 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | W73-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W63-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W20-15 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W30-20 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W38-13 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:97% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:46% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:98% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 38.5% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 52.3% | 81.3% |
| 7-2 | 8.8% | 10.5% |
| 6-3 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 81.9% (+0.0%) | 81.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 88.0% (+6.1%) | 81.7% (-0.2%) | |
| 81.8% (-0.1%) | 82.2% (+0.3%) | |
| 81.4% (-0.5%) | 87.1% (+5.2%) | |
| 81.8% (-0.1%) | 81.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 36.5% (-45.3%) | 83.1% (+1.2%) | |
| 83.1% (+1.2%) | 81.4% (-0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Purdue
Michigan StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IndianaCCG: 83.1% • Scenario: 97.5%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
38.5%Any 1 loss
81.3%
52.3%
88.9%
4.1%85.4%
0.9%85.1%
1.0%
83.3%
1.0%
80.4%
45.3%Any 2 losses
10.5%
8.8%15.2%
0.1%13.2%
0.1%12.3%
0.1%11.5%
4.8%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%8.9%
1.0%8.9%
1.2%8.9%
1.4%6.5%
<0.1%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19