Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W23-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W66-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L14-27 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W31-28 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L3-42 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W27-20 | |
| 8 | 10/17 | W24-6 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:12% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:80% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:5% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:53% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:68% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.2% | 41.5% |
| 7-2 | 4.8% | 0.3% |
| 6-3 | 32.3% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 42.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 18.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.8% (+0.7%) | 0.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Purdue
Michigan
Nebraska
Indiana
IllinoisCCG: 5.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MinnesotaCCG: 0.8% • Scenario: 12.0%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
41.5%
0.2%Any 1 loss
2.5%
0.3%
3.4%
0.1%
2.4%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19