Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:50% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:83% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:50% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:4% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:33% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:34% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:29% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:41% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:47% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:14% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:29% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 8-1 | 0.0% | 83.3% |
| 7-2 | 0.3% | 17.5% |
| 6-3 | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| 5-4 | 7.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 19.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 28.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 26.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 13.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 3.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
60.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
24.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
12.9%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
1.3%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%Data from 2024-08-23