Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
25.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | L20-27 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W44-21 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W36-33 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-17 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W42-10 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W29-26 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W34-10 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | L23-38 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:30% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:72% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:93% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:79% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 15.9% | 99.8% |
| 6-2 | 48.6% | 19.7% |
| 5-3 | 29.4% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 5.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 10.4% (-15.1%) | 60.7% (+35.2%) | |
| 32.3% (+6.8%) | 25.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 26.6% (+1.1%) | 24.6% (-0.9%) | |
| 37.6% (+12.1%) | 24.7% (-0.8%) | |
| 18.1% (-7.3%) | 34.8% (+9.4%) | |
| 25.4% (-0.1%) | 25.8% (+0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
LSU
Mississippi State
Oklahoma
Florida
Ole MissCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LSUCCG: 60.7% • Scenario: 30.0%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.8%
15.9%Any 1 loss
19.7%
48.6%
40.6%
1.1%38.7%
4.2%
19.5%
37.1%3.5%
6.1%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03